Trends in HIV Prevention, Treatment, and Incidence in a Hyperendemic Area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Importance In Africa, the persistently high HIV incidence rate among young women is the major obstacle to achieving the goal of epidemic control. Objective To determine trends in coverage of HIV prevention and treatment programs and HIV incidence. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study consisted of 2 sequential, community-based longitudinal studies performed in the Vulindlela and Greater Edendale area in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants enrolled from June 11, 2014, to June 22, 2015 (2014 survey), with a single follow-up visit from June 24, 2016, to April 3, 2017 (2016 cohort), or enrolled from July 8, 2015, to June 7, 2016 (2015 survey), with a single follow-up visit from November 7, 2016, to August 30, 2017 (2017 cohort). Men and women aged 15 to 49 years were enrolled in the 2014 and 2015 surveys, and HIV-seronegative participants aged 15 to 35 years were followed up in the 2016 and 2017 cohorts. Analysis was conducted from January 1 through December 31, 2018. Exposures HIV prevention and treatment programs in a real-world, nontrial setting. Main Outcomes and Measures Trends in sex- and age-specific HIV incidence rates, condom use, voluntary medical male circumcision, knowledge of HIV-seropositive status, uptake of antiretroviral therapy, and viral suppression. Results A total of 9812 participants (6265 women [63.9%]; median age, 27 years [interquartile range, 20-36 years]) from 11 289 households were enrolled in the 2014 survey, and 10 236 participants (6341 women [61.9%]; median age, 27 years [interquartile range, 20-36 years]) from 12 247 households were enrolled in the 2015 survey. Of these, 3536 of 4539 (annual retention rate of 86.7%) completed follow-up in the 2016 cohort, and 3907 of 5307 (annual retention rate of 81.4%) completed follow-up in the 2017 cohort. From 2014 to 2015, condom use with last sex partner decreased by 10% from 24.0% (n = 644 of 3547) to 21.6% (n = 728 of 3895;P = .12) in men and by 17% from 19.6% (n = 1039 of 6265) to 16.2% (n = 871 of 6341;P = .002) in women. Voluntary medical male circumcision increased by 13% from 31.9% (1102 of 3547) to 36.1% (n = 1472 of 3895);P = .007) in men, and the proportion of women reporting that their partner was circumcised increased by 35% from 35.7% (n = 1695 of 4766) to 48.2% (n = 2519 of 5207;P  Conclusions and Relevance This study showed a significant decline in HIV incidence in young women; however, to further reduce HIV incidence, HIV prevention and treatment program coverage must be intensified and scaled up.