Spatial prediction of environmental risk factors of plague based on geographic information system and Maxent model in Wulan County, Qinghai Province

Objective To predict the environmental risk factors and spatial distribution of plague using geographic information system (GIS) and Maxent model. Methods Wulan County in Qinghai Province was chosen as the study area, 45 positions of Himalaya marmot were processed by GIS software. The Himalaya marmot ecological environment variables including dem, slope, aspect, vegetation index, land surface temperature and land cover were extracted and analyzed. The distribution of Himalaya marmot prediction model was constructed based on Maxent model and ArcGIS software, and the environmental risk factors analysis was carried out. Results The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of the prediction result was 0.904, and the standard deviation was 0.077, indicating the predictive performance was good. The environmental risk factors analysis using Jackknife test indicated that the annual average normalized vegetation index, land cover and dem were the most important factors for the spatial distribution of Himalaya marmot. The percent contribution was 51.6%, 21.7% and 12.4% in sequence. The spatial distribution prediction showed the region with color from blue to red with Himalaya marmot existence probability increased gradually, having more risks for the occurrence and transmission of plague. Conclusions The environmental risk factors and spatial distribution of plague foci are predicted successfully using geographic information technology and Maxent model. The result can provide important reference for different plague epidemics control and prevention. Key words: Plague; Geographic information system; Environmental remote sensing; Spatial distribution; Maxent model