Predicting Passive Permeability of Drug-like Molecules from Chemical Structure: Where Are We?

Intestinal absorption in human is routinely predicted in drug discovery using in vitro assays such as permeability in the Madin-Darby canine kidney cell line. In silico models trained on these data are used in drug discovery efforts to prioritize novel chemical targets for synthesis; however, their proprietary nature and the limited validation available, which is usually restricted to predicting in vitro permeability, are barriers to widespread adoption. Because of the categorical nature of the in vitro permeability assay, intrinsic assay variability, and the challenges often encountered when translating in vitro data to an in vivo drug property, validation based solely on in vitro data might not be a good characterization of the usefulness of the in silico tool. In this work, we analyze the performance of three different in silico models in predicting the in vitro and in vivo permeability of 300 marketed drugs and 86 discovery compounds. The models differ in their approach (mechanistic vs quantitative st...