Earthquake risk scenarios of the Ciutat Vella District in Valencia, Spain

According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction cities must take measures to anticipate disasters and mitigate their impact, protecting homes and cultural heritage, minimizing losses due to earthquakes and other threats. After the recent earthquakes in historical city centres, the evaluation of the seismic risk, even in regions of low or moderate seismicity, is imperative, being damage assessment and loss estimation essential for its reduction. In this paper the seismic risk analysis of the residential buildings in the Ciutat Vella District in Valencia, with great historical and architectural value, is presented. The vulnerability of Ciutat Vella has been assessed with the Vulnerability Index Method establishing the seismic quality of the residential buildings according to their structural typology, conservation status, age and geometry; identifying the most vulnerable buildings. Damage probability matrices have been obtained for the deterministic and probabilistic earthquake scenarios, estimating for each of them, the seismic risk in terms of direct social and economic losses, mapping the results using a GIS system tool. Results confirm that the vulnerability of the building stock in Ciutat Vella is high being the seismic risk significant. In the event of an earthquake, many residential buildings included in the Catalogue of Listed Buildings of the Special Protection Plan of Ciutat Vella will be damaged. The detailed analysis of the most vulnerable buildings will provide, in future research works, criteria for intervention to enhance their structural seismic response, safeguarding the architectural heritage and contributing to the reduction of human and material losses.