Temporal and spatial patterns of salinity in a catchment of the central wheatbelt of Western Australia

Many estimates have been made of the future likely extent of salinity at regional and national scales in Australia; however, there are few detailed studies of changes in temporal and spatial patterns at catchment scale. This study was conducted in the Wallatin and O’Brien catchments in the low–medium rainfall zone of the central wheatbelt of Western Australia, where we examined the spatial trends in saline land over the last 18 years and related these to the likely rate and extent of future salinisation. The analysis showed that: (1) salinity has continued to expand post-1999 in landscape positions where there has been watertable rise and also in areas now at equilibrium even though rainfall has been below average; (2) increases in the area of salinity are still dominated by increases in the valley floor but there is now the emergence of many small, isolated outbreaks on the adjacent slopes; (3) widely available satellite-derived salinity maps (LandMonitor) derived in 1998 provide a reliable base-line for saline mapping but now underestimate the area of salt-affected land by 60%; (4) the trend in watertable levels and time since clearing and interactions with proximity to uncleared native vegetation provide reliable predictors of salinity risk; (5) episodic rainfall in areas of shallow watertables is proposed as a significant cause of the expansion in observed salinisation, even though some of this may be transient. These results are discussed in terms of management options for farmers and the likely long-term outlook for expansion of salinity in the catchment.