Wheat production forecasting for Pakistan from satellite data

Wheat is the principal winter crop in Pakistan during the winter (Rabi) season and an important food staple. Several months after harvest the local crop reporting administration in Punjab Province releases wheat yield and production statistics. The statistical estimates are based on field data collected manually from a fixed list of villages. Early season wheat production forecasts allow to better plan for wheat transactions on the world market, maintain adequate stocks, inform policy making, set support prices and increase market efficiency. This study describes a satellite-based methodology for early season wheat production forecasting. Wheat area is derived from a MODIS satellite image time series. Yield is estimated by regressing historic yields against MODIS-NDVI. The results for yield were within 6.7% and for production within 19.6% of final reported values for the 2011/12 Rabi season.