High cytomegalovirus serology and subsequent COPD-related mortality: a longitudinal study

Background Positive serology for cytomegalovirus (CMV) has been associated with all-cause mortality risk but its role in COPD mortality is unknown. The objective of the present study was to assess the relationship between CMV serology and COPD mortality. Methods We analysed data from 806 participants in the Tucson Epidemiological Study of Airway Obstructive Disease who, at enrolment, were aged 28–70 years and had completed lung function tests. We tested CMV serology in sera from enrolment and defined “high CMV serology” as being in the highest tertile. Vital status, date and cause of death were assessed through death certificates and/or linkage with the National Death Index up to January 2017. The association of CMV serology with all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk was tested in Cox models adjusted for age, sex, level of education, body mass index, smoking status and pack-years. Results High CMV serology was marginally associated with all-cause mortality (p=0.071) but the effect was inversely dependent on age, with the association being much stronger among participants Conclusions We report a strong relationship between CMV serology and the risk of dying from COPD, and thus identify a novel risk factor for COPD mortality.