Prediction of the epidemic trends of pandemic H1N1 2009, using SEIR model

Objective To explore the efficiency of SEIR model(susceptible,exposed,infectious and recovered model) for predicting the trend of pandemic H1N1 2008.Methods Data of the number of influenza-like illness cases(ILIs),pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 positive rate among ILIs and rate on clinical visit of ILIs before National Day ( October 1 ) were collected and analyzed to develop SEIR model for predicting the trend of pandemic H1N1 2009 after National Day,based on dynamics of infectious disease transmission.The results were compared with the results from and pandemic H1N1 2009 virologic surveillance data to evaluate the efficiency of SEIR model.Results The mean incubation period of pandemic H1N1 2009 was estimated 1.51 days,with a mean duration of infectiousness of 2.12 days,and a mean basic reproductive number of 1.28.As shown in the virologic surveillance data,pandemic H1N1 2009 peaked in early November.However,SEIR model predicted that pandemic H1N1 2009 would peak no later than December 4th.Conclusion SEIR model could be developed to predict the trend of pandemic influenza based on the early surveillance data. Key words: Pandemic H1N1 2009; Epidemic; Prediction; SEIR model