Estimation of Turkey's Import Demand Elasticity for Lint Cotton: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

ABSTRACT: This study estimates Turkey’s import demand model for lint cotton between 1966-2009, utilizing the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) demonstrates that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. While the import demand for lint cotton is escalated by income and liberalization policies in the long-run, it is estimated that relative prices and production/consumption coverage ratio will decrease. With the lifting of quotas in 2005, Turkey’s textile and apparel sector gained competitive advantage over the competitors in other countries and increased its profitability. Thus, the increase in imports continues as the domestic cotton production fails to meet the demand of the textile sector. Key Words: Lint cotton, liberalization, cointegration, bounds test Turkiye Lif Pamuk Ithalat Talebi Esnekligi Tahmini: Otoregressif Gecikme Dagilimli Sinir Testi Yaklasimi OZET: Bu calisma, Turkiye lif pamuk ithalat talebi modelini 1966-2009 donemi icin estumlesimde sinir testi yaklasimini kullanarak tahmin eder. Otoregressif gecikme dagilimli model degiskenler arasinda uzun donem iliskisi oldugunu gostermektedir. Lif pamuk ithalat talebini, uzun donemde, gelir ve liberallesme politikalari arttirirken nispi fiyat ve uretimin tuketimi karsilama oranin azaltacagi tahmin edilmistir. Turkiye tekstil ve konfeksiyon sektoru 2005 yilinda kotalarin kaldirilmasiyla birlikte diger ulkelere gore rekabet ustunlugu saglayarak karliligini arttirmistir. Bu yuzden, yurtici pamuk uretimi tekstil sektorunun talebini karsilamadigindan ithalat artisi surmektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Lif pamuk, liberallesme, es tumlesim, sinir testi