Global Demographic Divide

More recently attention has been focused on the "demographic divide" the vast gulf in birth and death rates among countries. On one side are mostly poor countries with relatively high birth rates and low life expectancies. On the other side are mostly wealthy countries with birth rates so low that population decline and rapid aging are all but guaranteed. This is not a simple divide that perpetuates the status quo among the have and have-not nations. Rather it involves a set of demographic forces that will affect the economic social and political circumstances in these countries and consequently their place on the world stage. Demographic trends are just one of the factors determining their future but they are a crucial factor. This Population Bulletin will look at the factors fueling the differential growth causing the demographic divide and at the countries in between the two extremes which contain the majority of world population in 2005. The Bulletin will focus on growth and demographic trends from now until mid-century when the effects of the "divide" will be even more visible-and when the demographic momentum for further growth or decline will be built into the age structure of individual countries. (excerpt)