Research on combination forecasting model for mine safety based on forecast availability

According to the definition of availability of combination forecast as well as the maximum average of forecasting precision of individual forecast within forecasting zone serving as the criterion,a weighted combination forecasting model was established based on individual forecast,and the optimal computation model of linear planning of weighted coefficient offered also.The forecasting model combining grey forecasting and exponential smoothing forecasting was used to study general tendency of domestic mining accidents,it is proved that the model not only can improve the forecasting precision at forecasting mine safety system,but has perceptual appearance,simple computation method and excellent practical value.