The Value of Fast Transitioning to a Fully Sustainable Energy System: The Case of Turkmenistan

The Paris Agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to mitigate effects of greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming. Turkmenistan ratified the Agreement and is a country with absolute reliance on fossil fuels and practically zero installed renewable energy capacity. This study provides potential transition scenarios to full sustainability for Turkmenistan in power, heat and transport sectors. Vast sunny desert plains of Turkmenistan could enable the country to switch to 100% renewable energy by 2050, with prospects to have 76% solar photovoltaics and 8.5% wind power capacities in a Best Policy Scenario. Seven different transition scenarios, with different GHG emissions cost assumptions and transition rates, have been analysed to demonstrate different possible paths towards full sustainability in a cost-efficient way. The results of the study demonstrate that a 100% renewable energy system, regardless of the transition rate, will be lower in cost than a continual reliance on fossil fuels. The scenario with the highest rate of renewable energy integration enables the least cost system and quickest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The results are expected to serve as a guideline to policymakers in Turkmenistan. The structural results for transition speed options and respective costs and benefits from switching a practically fully fossil fuels based system to a fully renewable energy system are expected to be transferable to many countries.