Seasonal Patterns in Sea Fleet Gains and Losses

Abstract : Historically, the level of fleet manning has varied widely over the course of a year. Arrivals to and departures from the sea fleet have not coincided well, resulting in significant understaffing at certain times of the year. This, of course, affects readiness. The objective of this report is to recommend policy options to bring about better matching of enlisted sea gains and losses to reduce the seasonal variation in sea manning. We first document the pattern of seasonal variation. We then decompose the transitions to and from the sea fleet to determine the sources of the variation so that we know where to target the policies. Finally, we offer an initial look at certain policies that aim to reduce the seasonal variation.