Longitudinal trends in total serum cholesterol levels in a Japanese cohort, 1958–1986

Abstract The 28-year follow-up of a Japanese cohort, having collected vast amounts of data collected on total serum cholesterol (TC), provided an exceptional opportunity to examine TC temporal trends. The longitudinal statistical method of growth-curve analysis was used to elucidate the age-related changes in TC levels and to characterize these trends in relation to sex, birth cohort, time period, place of residence, and body mass index (BMI). Japanese TC levels at initial examination were remarkably lower than those in western countries. During the study period from 1958 to 1986, TC levels increased dramatically with age in both sexes. The slope of the cholesterol growth curve was steeper for women than for men, with the difference growing larger after age 40 years. Drastic changes in Japanese behavior and lifestyle, especially westernization of the diet, are thought to have affected the TC values as time-period effects. As a result of this temporal change, which affected different cohorts at different ages, TC values were higher in members of the younger cohort. The increase of the TC values as time-period effects were larger in earlier period than in later period. These time-period effects appeared to be almost similar in men and women. The TC growth curves also varied by city of residence. Subjects in urban areas had higher TC values than subjects in rural areas. Changes associated with BMI from 1958 to 1986 were only partially responsible for the increased steepness of the TC growth curve.