Projected global health impacts from severe nuclear accidents: Conversion of projected doses to risks on a global scale: Experience from Chernobyl releases

Best estimates of possible additional health effects were projected for the Northern Hemisphere: (1) over the next 50 years, up to 28 thousand radiation-induced fatal cancers, compared to an expected 600 million cancer deaths from natural or spontaneous causes; (2) over the next year, up to 700 additional cases of severe mental retardation, compared to a normal expectation of 340 thousand cases; and (3) in the first generation, up to 1.9 thousand radiation-induced genetic disorders, compared to 180 million naturally-occurring cases. The possibility of zero health effects at very low doses and dose rates cannot be excluded. Due to the very large numbers of naturally-occurring health effects, it is unlikely that any additional health effects will be demonstrable except, perhaps, for the more highly exposed population in the immediate vicinity of Chernobyl. 13 refs., 4 figs., 6 tabs.