WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Operational NWP Models: A Quarter Century and Beyond

AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been compared and verified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) under an intercomparison project of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) since 1991. This intercomparison has promoted validation of the global models in the tropics and subtropics. The results have demonstrated a steady increase in the global models’ ability to predict TC positions over the past quarter century.The intercomparison study started from verification for TCs in the western North Pacific basin with three global models. Up to the present date, the verification has been extended to all ocean basins where TCs regularly occur, and 12 global models participated in the project. In recent years, the project has been extended to include verification of intensity forecasts and forecasts by regional models.This intercomparison project has seen a significant improvement in TC track forecasts, both globally and in e...