Energy Resources: Economy Development Models

This paper is an attempt to extend methodological research of complex systems development at IIASA. The most typical and probably most urgent example is analysis and planning of long-range development of energy systems. During the last decade interest in energy problems has considerably increased all over the world and we are now witnesses of significant progress in the field. This concerns however mostly the particular implementation of different energy models. As for methodological mathematical analysis of the problem we deal here, at initial stages, with inevitable lags, though first attempts have already been made in this direction. Meanwhile, in analyzing outputs of energy models implemented in different ways, many methodological problems are arising: for example, how to link energy supply, resources and economy models into a whole system? what is the world ("global") energy model: is that game-theoretical, optimization or simulation? how does our uncertainty in the "future" input data influence our "certainty" of present decisions? etc. These questions do not only relate to energy models but are also of concern for any problems of long-range development of a complex system (for example, analysis of interaction of manpower-economy development in the long run. IIASA seems to be an unique place for stimulating such kind of methodological work. Different approaches, different opinions, different models, which are under permanent discussion or investigation at IIASA -- all of this eventually and inevitably becomes a point of view, a starting point of any methodology. This paper, as mentioned above, should be considered as an initial attempt in this direction.