Bounding, an Accessible Method for Estimating Principal Causal Effects, Examined and Explained.

ABSTRACTEstimating treatment effects for subgroups defined by posttreatment behavior (i.e., estimating causal effects in a principal stratification framework) can be technically challenging and heavily reliant on strong assumptions. We investigate an alternative path: using bounds to identify ranges of possible effects that are consistent with the data. This simple approach relies on fewer assumptions and yet can result in policy-relevant findings. As we show, even moderately predictive covariates can be used to substantially tighten bounds in a straightforward manner. Via simulation, we demonstrate which types of covariates are maximally beneficial. We conclude with an analysis of a multisite experimental study of Early College High Schools. When examining the program's impact on students completing the ninth grade “on-track” for college, we find little impact for ECHS students who would otherwise attend a high-quality high school, but substantial effects for those who would not. This suggests a potentia...