Outlook of China's agriculture transforming from smallholder operation to sustainable production

Abstract Agriculture in China has been smallholder based. Tempted by a large food demand, smallholders have been using excessive fertilizer to obtain high yields. This type of production has impaired the country's food production and environmental sustainability. There are, however, some innovative smallholders who are more adaptive to new technologies, have become more successful in production and nutrient utilization. In this study, we analysed the outlook of transforming smallholder agriculture in China into sustainable food production. First, we collected a database from a survey of 6.6 million smallholders engaged in the production of a total of 54 crops, which were categorized into cereals, fruits, vegetables, and others. From the database we assessed the extent of nitrogen (N) overuse by counties. Then we identified the top 10% performers in crop yield and N efficiency as prime producers. These prime producers were 15.3–35.4% higher in crop yield but 16.0–21.0% lower in N fertilizer use than their cohorts, and consequently 17.2–37.6% higher in economic returns. Replicating the success of the prime producers in agriculture in China would enable the country to reduce N use by 32.9% and land use by 11% without changing production. In the meantime, nitrate leaching from cropland would be brought down below the threshold for water safety. Based on the data we developed a model for transforming smallholder agriculture to sustainable food production through co-operation with stakeholders. This model could be used as a reference for producers, investors, and policy makers.