Verifying Autonomous Air Traffic Algorithms in the Presence of Sensor Error and Flight Perturbations

We offer a method to verify algorithms for air traffic control in the presence of sensor errors and flight perturbations. Since errors and perturbations are described by stochastic processes, verification by analytical methods is difficult. We turn to Monte Carlo simulation, but there are two major obstacles. Since air traffic algorithms are safety-critical, the algorithm must be established at a very high confidence level which requires an enormous number of trials. Another is that a simulation attempts to show that an algorithm correctly handles a hazard that might appear, but there is a lack of information about the frequency of occurrence of hazards in the airspace. This paper offers a solution to these and other obstacles. It recognizes there may be a number of algorithms that address different hazards, and the results of the different simulations must be combined to satisfy a global reliability requirement at a high confidence level. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we apply it to an example, an initial effort in collision avoidance.