SP3-4 Incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the north of Tunisia: tendency and projections until 2024

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is the second neoplasm of ORL site in Tunisia with a bimodal distribution and a first period occurrence between 15 and 20 years old and a second period occurrence at 50 years old. Data of cancer registry of North Tunisia (CRNT) of the period 1999–2003 confirmed that Tunisia is an intermediate risk area for NPC. This study aims to present the evolution of incidence rate of NPC over a period of 10 years (1994–2003) and try to establish a projection of this rate and the number of cases on 2024 in the north of Tunisia. Methods Data between 1994 and 2003 helped to determine evolution and prediction of the disease and were given by the CRNT, this registry is covering the north of Tunisia then half of the Tunisian population. The data of incidence, by age bracket of 5 years, were planned for 4 periods 2004–2008; 2009–2013; 2014–2018; 2019–2024. For the analysis we used a model of type Bayesien age-troop. The implementation of this analysis was realised by a sampling of Gibbs by means of the software WinBUGS. Result Between 1994 and 2003, we observed negative annual average spleen of standardised incidence evolution in men and women (−3.3% vs 2.7%) also for the standardised incidences which showed a rather important decline (26.4% at the man and −22.3% at the woman). Between periods 1994–1998 and 2019–2024, at the man the number of annual average case could decrease in 36%. At the woman, the number of annual average case could remain stable, the specific rates according to the age increase from the age bracket 65 to 69 but decrease rather sharply at the child9s and the adults whose age is 65-year-old subordinate. Then an important decrease of 70% in men and 45% in women was observed. NPC acknowledged a favourable evolution from 1994 to 2003 probably due to a better socioeconomic level. If this tendency is maintained, it could be an interesting area of research.