Scientific and market opportunities for agriculture. Will the potential be realised in the UK

Distorted by the impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy, UK agriculture has declined from a position of relative strength when it entered the European Communities in 1973, to become an industry that will find it difficult to compete in international markets in an era of increasing free trade. Numerous opportunities arising from new types of science, engineering and technology will not be realised readily in an environment of declining political and public sympathy for matters agricultural, weakening of agricultural institutions, underinvestment in science, and economic underperformance which is now manifest by agriculture's contribution to the gross domestic product (0.4% after stripping out direct subsidies) being less than the retail paint trade but about the same level as the fresh sandwich trade. Biotechnology has yet to reach its zenith, as structural and functional genomics, bioinformatics, transgenesis, multi-functional crops, regenics, phytoremediation, habitat reconstruction and 'inflight' therapy of crops become commonplace. Internationally, agriculture will have ready access to: (i) a vast range of cultivars and propagules of high-health status and with desirable water and nutrient use capabilities; (ii) reliable automation; (iii) microsite engineering to safeguard soil structure so that different types of land can be used sustainably for specific purposes; (iv) management support and decision systems to aid in agronomic systems, eg to optimise water use, to retard oxidation of peat-based soils, etc; (v) efficient transport and storage systems for the primary produce; (vi) dignified maintenance of livestock with rapid health correction systems; (vii) fresh water in designated areas; and (viii) accurate short- and medium-term weather forecasts. There will be a phenomenal range of fresh and processed foodstuffs, available year-round, with stated nutraceutical and pharmaceutical properties. In the post-microwave, post-flash-baking era, convenience will reign supreme. Easily engineered fresh food products of uniform colour, shape, size, taste, aroma, chemical composition and texture will meet consumer demands and, as always, will be influenced by fashion and advertising. Certain current brands of foodstuffs will be eliminated on health grounds. E-commerce, e-agriculture, e-universities, e-research institutes, e-scientific journals, e-schools and even e-scientific societies will be the norm. There will be a revolution in the acquisition, analysis, application and ownership of scholarship and intellectual property. The retailing and delivery industries will witness a shrinking in the central functions as automation takes over, and consequently the storage and processing industries will alter their relationships with agriculture and the customer. On current trends the UK will have but a minor role in international agricultural and food trade as a result of failing to generate and capture relevant intellectual property. There is a danger that UK-owned agricultural and horticultural expertise will no longer be available as useful tools to assist politicians and the private sector in providing development aid to economically weak countries.