Phenological responses to multiple environmental drivers under climate change: insights from a long‐term observational study and a manipulative field experiment

Climate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, with the timing of first flowering advancing in most species. Indeed, population persistence may be threatened by the inability to track climate change phenologically. Nevertheless, substantial variation exists in biological responses to climate change across taxa. Here, we explore the consequences of climate change for flowering phenology by integrating data from a long-term observational study and a manipulative experiment under contemporary conditions. Dissecting the environmental factors that influence phenological change will illuminate why interspecific variation exists in responses to climate change. We examine a 43-year record of first flowering for six species in subalpine meadows of Colorado in conjunction with a 3-year snow manipulation experiment on the perennial mustard Boechera stricta from the same site. We analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. At our study site, climate change is reducing snowpack and advancing the timing of spring snowmelt. We found that variation in phenological responses to climate change depended on the sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species flowering faster, at a lower heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods in comparison to species that flower later in the season. Furthermore, climate change is outpacing phenological change for all species. Early snow removal treatments confirm that the timing of snowmelt governs observed trends in flowering phenology of B. stricta and that climate change can reduce the probability of flowering, thereby depressing fitness. Shorter-term studies would not have captured the trends that we document in our observational and experimental datasets. Accurate predictions of the biological responses to climate change require a thorough understanding of the specific environmental factors driving shifts in phenology.