Research on China’s Medium and Long Term Electricity Demand Based on Industry Development

Reasonable prediction of medium and long term electricity demand is the prerequisite and basis for scientific power development plan. Based on the development of industries, the paper established a medium and long term electricity demand forecasting model including 33 industrial sectors and 1 resident sector. The model was utilized to forecast China’s electricity demand of 2020, 2025 and 2030. The results show that total electricity demand of China will be 7505, 9100, 10343 TWh in 2020, 2025 and 2030 respectively, the electricity demand of the primary industry will be 122, 138, 147 TWh, the electricity demand of the secondary industry will be 5152, 5864, 6206 TWh, the electricity demand of tertiary industry will be 1124, 1551, 1998 TWh, the residential electricity demand will be 1109, 1548, 1992 TWh. From the point of view of sub-sectors, the electricity demand growth of energy intensive industries is slow, and there is greater growth potential for non-energy intensive industries.