Principal Influencing Factors on the Oil Policy of OPEC and Its Oil Policy Orientation in the Future

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental organization of oil supply. Carrying out the oil price policy is the core of OPEC oil policy, which accords with its economic and political interests. There are a variety of influencing factors on the oil policy of OPEC which are interrelated with each other. Based on comprehensively looking into the oil policy of OPEC, and taking into account new situations and circumstances of the international oil market, together with its medium-term and long-term development strategies, 7 principal influencing factors on the oil policy of OPEC have been put forward in this paper, i.e., the supply-demand situation for crude oil all over the world, the development condition of the world economy, speculative attacks in the oil market, the factions inside OPEC, the political system and diplomatic policies of OPEC members, energy policies of the oil importing countries and the consuming ones, the competition and game between OPEC members and the non-OPEC ones, and alternative energy. These factors are interrelated and reinforced with each other. All of them together determine the oil policy orientation of OPEC in the future. The oil production quotas system will act as an important foundation for OPEC’s making oil policy. The policy position of Saudi Arabia would affect the oil policy orientation of OPEC to a great extent. Reinforcing cooperation, realizing the mutual benefits and win-win result will become the primary trend of OPEC’s oil policy. It is very important for OPEC to strengthen cooperation and dialogue with organizations such as OECD, IEA, EIA, as well as the main oil-consuming countries. OPEC’s oil policy will refer to the development tendency of alternative energy. OPEC should make great efforts to reform the oil pricing mechanism. The games from the external and internal OPEC will also have a great effect on oil policy orientation. On the basis of oil supply-demand situations, the overall consideration of development conditions of the world economy and speculative attacks in the oil market, games and cooperation with non-OPEC countries concerning oil proven reserve, production, market share, refinery capacity, organization and its functions, response to alternative energy, and giving full play to controlling oil prices by the oil production quotas system, OPEC would carry out a moderate oil price policy. This can make the oil prices very close to the alternative energy prices. By the time when OPEC safeguards its own economic and political interests, the goal of the mutual benefit and win-win result should be realized. In addition, the stability of the world oil market should be ensured, and the crude oil should be supplied fully in a safe and effective way. The oil policy of OPEC will generally be more reasonable in the future.