Predictive habitat modelling to estimate petrel breeding colony sizes: Sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus) and mottled petrels (Pterodroma inexpectata) on Whenua Hou Island

Abstract Between 2001 and 2006, we systematically sampled the entire coast of Whenua Hou, a rugged offshore island in southern New Zealand, to estimate the population densities of sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus) and mottled petrels (Pterodroma inexpectata) by counting the entrances of breeding burrows. A two‐step regression modelling process using binomial errors was used to predict the presence of a colony, and a normal general linear model was used to predict the density of entrances within colonies. Aerial photography, GIS and a Digital Elevation Model were used to extract relevant habitat and location variables, and a combination of both regression models was used to predict the density of breeding burrows within each 5.32 m2 pixel on the island. This complex GIS and habitat prediction modelling approach gave population estimates very similar to a more traditional simple area extrapolation method and gave no improvement in precision. However, correction for the slope of the land increased our sim...