Using agent-based simulation to empirically examine search theory using a historical case study

Threats to a nation's resources and forces are becoming increasingly lethal and mobile. Therefore, the ability to locate and interdict these threats is more important than ever. Search theory was developed during World War II (WWII), but remains an analytical tool vital to locating and countering the increasing threat. This paper presents results that demonstrate how simulation can be used to extend the analytical results of classic Search Theory. This paper presents a multi-agent simulation, built in the Java object-oriented programming language, and based on the Allied search for U-boats in the Bay of Biscay during WWII. Key components of the model are validated against historical data using statistical methods. The model is then used to empirically examine the utility of various modern search patterns particularly when rigid Search Theory assumptions are relaxed.