Forecasting sustainability: growth to removals ratio dynamics

The growth to removals ratio (G/R) is often used as a measure of forest resource sustainability and as a reference point to forecast future resource sustainability. However, little work has been done to determine if any relationship exists between G/R over time. Forest Inventory and Analysis data for 12 southern states were used to determine if any relationship exists between G/R at a given point in time and G/R in the future. Ordinary least squares results indicated a positive relationship over time, meaning a high G/R ratio in the past is associated with a high G/R ratio in the future. However, after removing the effects of differences across space through the use of fixed effects analysis, the results indicated G/R has a negative relationship with itself over time.