Linking habitat suitability and seed dispersal models in order to analyse the effectiveness of hydrological fen restoration strategies

The effectiveness of measures targeted at the restoration of populations of endangered species in anthropogenically dominated regions is often limited by a combination of insufficient restoration of habitat quality and dispersal failure. Therefore, the joint prediction of suitable habitat and seed dispersal in dependency of management actions is required for effective nature management. Here we demonstrate an approach, which links a habitat suitability and a seed dispersal model. The linked model describes potential species distribution as a function of current species distribution, species-specific dispersal traits, the number of successful dispersal events, dispersal infrastructure and habitat configuration. The last two variables were related to water management actions. We demonstrate the applicability of the model in a strategy analysis of hydrological restoration measures for a large fen area in which still numerous endangered plant species grow. With the aid of the linked model, we were able to optimise the spatial planning of restoration measures, taking into account both the constraints of water management practices on abiotic restoration and the effects of habitat fragmentation on dispersal. Moreover, we could demonstrate that stand-alone habitat suitability models, which assume unlimited dispersal, may considerably overestimate restoration prospects. For these reasons, we conclude that linked habitat suitability and dispersal models can provide useful insights into spatially differentiated potentials and constraints of nature restoration measures targeted at the sustainable conservation of endangered plant populations whose habitats have been deteriorated due to undesirable effects of land and water management on abiotic conditions. These insights may contribute to the design of cost-effective nature restoration and conservation measures.