Alteration of Vehicle Propellant Use and the Impact on CO2 Emissions and NO2 Concentrations in Gothenburg and Mölndal

Sweden has set the target of a fossil independent vehicle fleet in 2030, focusing on a transport system mainly driven by biofuel and electricity. This study investigates the potential of reducing GHG emissions and improving local air pollution, by altering propellant- and vehicle use. Based on literature studies, five individual- and two combined scenarios were created, with different amount of hybridization, electrification and a shift towards biodiesel, for four different vehicle categories. Emission factors, collected from HBEFA, were used for 2016 and 2030 to generate the total emissions, in Business As Usual (BAU) and the individual scenarios. For cases where emission factors were missing, new factors were created through literature studies and the relation between new and conventional propellant- and engine types. The geographical vehicle distribution and vehicle numbers were used to calculate total annual emissions, showing large improvements, in both CO2 and NOX, from 2016 to 2030 BAU with even further reduction in the scenarios. Dispersion simulations of NO2 were conducted with The Air Pollution Model and the results showed large potential in improving the local air quality and reducing the population exposed to concentrations above the environmental target.