Wind speed as an independent variable to forecast the trap catch of the fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis)

A study was conducted during 2001 - 02 at Bangalore to developa weather based forcast model for the Oriental fruit fly [Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel)] a pest on mango(Mangifera indica L.) in India. Methyl eugenol (a parapheromone) is one of the components in its integrated pest management as well as in monitoring. The results showed that the wind speed and minimum temperature influenced the trap catches. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was stronger for wind speed than the minimum temperature. A forecasting model based on wind speed using polynomial equation was arrived at y = 1.2779x 3 + 30.859x 2 - 208.17x + 455.55, R 2 =0.7303; y = 0.8557x 4 - 26.221x 3 + 294.38x 2 - 1402.6x + 2415.4, R 2 = 0.7585 and found best to predict fruit fly catches.