Evaluación de la Efectividad de las Medidas de Mitigación para Aplanar la Curva Epidémica de la COVID-19: Evidencia de Cinco Ciudades de México

This paper estimates the benefits of flattening the COVID-19 epidemic curve in the five Mexican cities that concentrate most of the cases in the country. On average, the analysis finds that mitigation policies reduced the number of total cases in 46%. A smaller epidemic allows each city’s the healthcare system to better manage cases by delaying the pressure on health resources. The result is that 69 % of the deaths that would have occurred were averted by mitigation policies (about 129,000 people). These benefits can be monetized as about 219 billion USD, which represents 8.4% of the Mexican GDP in 2019.