The future of the global environment : a model-based analysis supporting UNEP's first global environment outlook
1997
This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global
Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis.
This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the
environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a
further projection to 2050. The study was carried out in support of the
Agenda 21 interim evaluation, five years after 'Rio' and ten years after
'Brundtland'. The scenario analysis is based on only one scenario,
Conventional Development. It features higher incomes and better health,
but increasing regional inequalities. This pattern is reinforced by the
analysis using detailed environmental models. Agricultural land use has
to expand considerably in order to meet the growing demand for food,
while agricultural productivity is not growing quickly enough in Africa
and Asia. The little that remains of natural areas comes under heavy
pressure. The ratio between water demand and availability becomes
problematic in an increasing number of the world's catchment areas,
although there are strong regional differences. Trade in food products
becomes even more important than it is now, both for one's well-being and
for the question on where the environmental pressures will occur. The
necessary demographic and health transitions are illustrated with case
studies for India, Mexico and the Netherlands. Protection of the
environment will become an increasingly important factor in improving
healthy life expectancy in developing countries. Future generations will
be able to use energy, land and water more efficiently. Although the
scenario analyzed in this study is rather optimistic in this respect.
The assumed efficiency increases are by and large insufficient to meet
the absolute growth in demand. On the other hand, there is technically
speaking evidence given of considerable room for reducing the pressure on
natural resources - assuming political determination, of
course.
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