Bayesian benchmark dose analysis for inorganic arsenic in drinking water associated with bladder and lung cancer using epidemiological data.

Abstract Abundant epidemiological evidence has shown that there is a strong causal relationship between long-term exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) through drinking water and a few types of cancer (e.g., lung and bladder cancer). Traditionally, a linear low-dose extrapolation assumption was applied in risk assessment for iAs which resulted in a relatively conservative cancer risk estimate. Growing biological evidence suggests that the mode of action of iAs-induced cancer follows a threshold process (e.g., sufficient concentration of trivalent arsenic is required to disrupt normal cellular function). In this study, we applied the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology to model the relationship between the relative risk of bladder and lung cancer and the iAs concentration in drinking water using the high-quality epidemiological data reported in recently published papers, with a special focus on the low exposure range (i.e.,