Contra Costa County’s Proposed Minimum Wage Law: A Prospective Impact Study

The Ensuring Opportunity Campaign to Cut Poverty in Contra Costa has introduced a plan to establish a $15 per hour minimum wage in Contra Costa County, California, by 2020. The proposal would phase in the minimum wage increase over five steps. This study examines the effects of the proposed minimum wage increase on Contra Costa workers and businesses (assuming that all of the cities in the county, as well as the county itself, enact the proposed law). Drawing on a variety of government data sources, we estimate that the proposed minimum wage increase would provide significant gains in income to Contra Costa’s low-wage workers and their families. Most businesses would be able to absorb the increased costs, and consumers would see a moderate increase in restaurant prices spread over five years. The proposal’s impact on overall employment is therefore not likely to be significant. However, since any prospective impact study has a level of inherent uncertainty, the actual effects of the proposed minimum wage law should be closely monitored during implementation.