ASEAN at 50: The Rise of China and the Emerging Regional Integration Architecture

China has had and will continue to have major implications for ASEAN as an entity or for its member countries. “Realist” scholars argue that ASEAN has no role except for what the big powers the United States and China allow it to have. “Constructivist” scholars, however, argue that ASEAN has the ability to determine its own destiny. Regardless of the school of thought espoused, it cannot be denied that the departure of the United States from Southeast Asia after its misadventures in Vietnam, together with China’s preoccupation with its domestic problems before 1978 and with the liberalization of its economy immediately after gave ASEAN the space to grow and develop. Once China began to refocus on its regional and global role, it impacted ASEAN both economically and strategically. Overall, the rise of China brings both benefits and costs to ASEAN. Managing both successfully will be key to ASEAN’s survival and effectiveness.