Land suitability determination for citrus cultivation using a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis in Mersin, Turkey

Abstract Determination of suitable locations for agricultural products is an important subject to study, as it is essential to identify optimal areas for crop productivity and sustainable farming activities. This study proposes a site selection assessment model for citrus cultivation using Geographic Information System (GIS) Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in the Mersin province of Turkey. The purpose of the study is to create a Multi-Criteria Assessment-Based Spatial Decision Support System which takes into account the opinions of local citrus farmers as well as those of experts. 14 preference factors and 10 exclusion factors were determined for the analysis of land suitability for citrus farming. The weighting of preference factors for citrus cultivation was determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and a land suitability map was generated using the weighted overlay method in the GIS environment. Based on the opinions of farmers and experts, higher weights were assigned to the average temperature in the flowering period, the average temperature in the winter season, and elevation, as compared to all other preference factors. The results also demonstrate that WorldClim, a global climate dataset, is an essential source of data in such studies, as climate conditions play a crucial role in potential citrus expansion. The final land suitability map shows that the most suitable and moderately suitable areas for citrus cultivation have surface areas of 85 824 ha and 85 430 ha, respectively. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate validation of the land suitability for citrus and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was calculated at 0.87, indicating substantial consistency. This study proposes a methodology for the determination of suitable sites for citrus cultivation which relies on realistic data. The land suitability map produced in the study will be essential for the creation of sustainable agriculture strategies in the eastern Mediterranean region.