Uncertainty Analysis of Ship Model Propulsion Test on Actual Seas Based on Monte Carlo Method

As a new testing technology, large-scale ship model tests on the sea are advantageous in addressing the scale effect in ship models and in simulating ship navigation conditions. In this study, the uncertainty of a ship model propulsion test on the sea was analyzed using the Monte Carlo method, and the influence of the test environment was quantified. We used a 25 m-long ship model for the propulsion performance test. Based on the procedure recommended by the International Standardization Organization (ISO), several tests were conducted on the Yellow Sea (the northwestern part of the East China Sea). The results demonstrate that the wind and waves in the environment are the two factors that have the greatest influence on the test accuracy. This study will aid the development of sea trials, and the analysis method used in the propulsion test is also suitable for many complex ship tests.