Fourth World Fertilizer Conference conferees warn about fertilizer problems

According to E. M. Wheeler (Fertilizer Inst.) at the 4th World Fertilizer Conference (N.Y. Sept. 1979), fertilizer production costs have been increasing at 15-20Vertical Bar3< yr, ocean shipping rates increased by approx. 35Vertical Bar3< in 1979, and freight charges have increased by 19Vertical Bar3<; substantial increases in world oil prices in 1980 could devastate the current fertilizer price structure, but are not expected to reduce fertilizer usage. According to D. Cantwell (Chem. Enterprises Inc.), high energy costs and supply difficulties are constraining ammonia production and retarding expansion; there is some doubt that there will be sufficient capacity for phosphoric acid and ammoniated phosphates in the early 1980's. According to M. T. Thijssen (U.K.F.), losses within the European agricultural cycle in the future ''will possibly be suppressed in response to the mounting cost of energy''. According to R. M. Freeman (TVA), a shift in nitrogen fertilizer production to areas with the largest and cheapest natural gas reserves is being caused by the decline in supply and increase in price of natural gas. About 17 million tons of new fertilizer capacity is scheduled to come on stream between 1979-85, none of which is scheduled for North America.