[Temporal trend of probability of premature death caused by four major non-communicable diseases in Anhui province, 2014 to 2018, and the potential of achieving healthy goals].

Objective: To investigate the current status and temporal trend of probability of premature death, caused by four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Anhui province, from 2014 to 2018, and to explore the possibility of achieving the goal of "Healthy China 2030". Methods: Data of death were collected from the "Information System for Death Cause Register and Management". The mortality, standardized mortality, premature mortality rate and annual percentage change (APC) were calculated. Based on the reduction target of "Healthy China 2030"(-30%) and "Healthy Anhui 2030"(-25%) for premature death probability of four major NCDs, the possibility of achieving the target was evaluated. Results: From 2014 to 2018, the proportion of four major NCDs deaths to total deaths increased from 82.76% to 84.77%, showing an upward trend(APC=0.50%). The standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs in the population aged 30-69 years was decreasing annually (APC=-1.78%). The premature death probability of four major NCDs decreased from 15.53% to 14.43% with a downward trend. The decline rate of men (APC=-1.80%) was slightly lower than that of women (APC=-2.00%). The decline rate of urban (APC=-1.57%) and rural (APC=-1.99%), Northern Anhui (APC=-2.32%) and Central Anhui (APC=-1.81%) areas were all showed a downward trend. The premature death probability in the same year was higher in men, rural areas and northern Anhui areas. The decrease of chronic respiratory diseases was the greatest (APC=-9.19%), followed by cancer (APC=-1.77%), but increased in diabetes for men (APC=-2.90%). According to the average growth rate of premature death probability from 2014 to 2018, it was predicted that the goal of healthy Anhui would be achieved by 2030. However, to achieve the goal of healthy China, the rate of decline needs to be increased by 26.40% on the existing basis. Comparing to the proportion, the descent speed needs to be increased between different genders, urban and rural areas and regions. Conclusions: The premature death probability of four major NCDs in Anhui province has a continuous downward trend. Men, rural residents and residents in northern Anhui province are the key population. We should carry out intervention against the main risk factors of NCDs, reduce the premature mortality rate of NCDs, and strive to achieve the goal of "Healthy China 2030".