Efectos del cambio climático sobre el potencial vitícola de Baja California, México* Effects of climate change on the wine production potential of Baja California, Mexico

Baja California has the only portion Mexico with Mediterranean climate, whose main features are rains in winter and hot dry summers. In this region, located in the northwest of the State, higher quality wines are produced in Mexico. It is estimated that 90% of Mexican wines are obtained from fruits produced in about 3 500 hectares of vineyards established in various agricultural valleys. The quality of regional wines is attributed to a large extent, the average temperature of 19.8 °C presented over the period of vine growth (April to October) and the absence of rainfall during the ripening period fruits, which reduces the risk of damaging the fruit by plant pathogens. The favourable temperatures mentioned above may be modified by the anticipated effects of climate change, as has been documented in other wine regions. This would change the production potential of the valley where the wine industry currently develops, which in turn would have a significant impact on the socioeconomic status of the population that depends on this agroindustrial activity. The aim of this study was to estimate the effects of climate change on the production potential of Baja California, including its current wine regions. We worked with the daily data of 55 conventional weather stations managed by the State management of the CNA in B. C. For the characterization and definition of wine,