Simulating residential land-use density

Land-use simulation is an established part of the spatial planning process in the Netherlands. Existing modelling approaches, however, have hitherto focused on urban expansion and are less well equipped to assess the impact of expected changes within the existing urban fabric as a consequence of, for example, regional population decline. Urban restructuring and intensification are now considered to be prominent issues in land- use modelling. This calls for a change from an essentially land-cover type of approach common to most operational land-use model to a more object-oriented density-based approach. Our paper will discuss recent progress in describing current changes in urban densities and proposes an approach to incorporate this knowledge in a land-use simulation modelling framework. More specifically we will focus on capturing residential land-use density using highly detailed spatial datasets that describe the location of individual residences and residents.