Rainfall intensification increases the contribution of rewetting pulses to soil respiration

Abstract. Soil drying and wetting cycles promote carbon (C) release through large heterotrophic respiration pulses at rewetting, known as Birch effect. Empirical evidence shows that drier conditions before rewetting and larger changes in soil moisture at rewetting cause larger respiration pulses. Because soil moisture varies in response to rainfall, also these respiration pulses depend on the random timing and intensity of precipitation. In addition to rewetting pulses, heterotrophic respiration continues during soil drying, eventually ceasing when soils are too dry to sustain microbial activity. The importance of respiration pulses in contributing to the overall soil respiration flux has been demonstrated empirically, but no theoretical investigation has so far evaluated how the relative contribution of these pulses may change along climatic gradients or as precipitation regimes shift in a given location. To fill this gap, we start by assuming that rewetting pulses and respiration rates during soil drying can be treated as random variables dependent on soil moisture fluctuations, and develop a stochastic model for soil heterotrophic respiration rates that analytically links the statistical properties of respiration to those of precipitation. Model results show that both the mean rewetting pulse respiration and the mean respiration during drying increase with increasing mean precipitation. However, the contribution of respiration pulses to the total heterotrophic respiration increases with decreasing precipitation frequency and to a lesser degree with decreasing precipitation depth, leading to an overall higher contribution of respiration pulses under future more intermittent and intense precipitation. Moreover, the variability of both components of soil respiration is also predicted to increase under these conditions. Therefore, our results suggest that with future more intermittent precipitation, respiration pulses and the associated nutrient release will intensify and become more variable, contributing more to soil biogeochemical cycling.