A Time-series Analysis of the Association Between Occupational Health Policies and Opioid Prescription Patterns in United States Active Duty Military Service Members from 2006 to 2018.

OBJECTIVE: The Department of Defense (DoD) implemented numerous occupational health policies to guide opioid prescribing to active duty military service members (ADSM). This retrospective time series analysis evaluated the impact of DoD policies on opioid prescribing trends in ADSM from 2006-2018. METHODS: Bayesian structural time-series models with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference and a semi-local linear trend were constructed to estimate the impact of polices. RESULTS: Results indicate annual opioid proportions significantly decreased after the introduction of occupational health policies introduced in 2011-2012. Collectively, occupational policies were associated with a significant reduction (6.6%) in annual opioid rates to ADSM following 2012. This observed effect was associated with approximately 121,000 less opioid prescriptions dispensed in 2018 alone. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational health policy interventions were associated with reductions in opioid prescribing within the DoD.