Method for future pedestrian accident scenario prediction

This paper addresses future pedestrian accident scenarios involving next decade of small electric vehicles (SEVs) employed primarily in urban areas in 2025. The methodology used to predict the most relevant accident scenarios in 2025, in terms of speeds, impact locations, vehicle designs and inner-city boundaries, includes four main steps and as an example, the first three steps are shown for pedestrian impacts. First step is a Delphi study, supported by a public survey, to estimate future mobility concepts and city-layouts and helps to identify boundary conditions for future accident scenarios. Furthermore, the second step, the analysis of national and in-depth accident databases give an overall scenario definition and the boundaries for a relevant generic baseline accident type and scenario. Thirdly stochastic simulations based on the baseline scenario and evaluated with the Delphi, are used to predict future accident scenarios.