Evaluation of aerodynamic heating uncertainties for Space Shuttle

The uncertainty in heating predictions derived from ground test data correlations has been used to define the corresponding uncertainties in TPS weight for the Space Shuttle. A completely reusable Shuttle system consisting of an aluminum heat sink booster and orbiter with reusable surface insulation for thermal protection was evaluated. The largest contribution to the uncertainty in the weight of the thermal protection system for the orbiter occurred on lower surface areas due to heating and boundary layer transition uncertainties. Extension of this work to the current Shuttle system concept showed reduced weight uncertainty for the external tank compared to the reusable booster.