Oil and gas resources: welcome to uncertainty

A review of United States' oil production shows that the nation passed the one billion barrel level in 1929, 2 billion in 1948, 3 billion in 1966, and reached the 3.5 billion level in 1970. The U.S. seemed a permanent fixture as the world's number one producer of oil and gas. The undercurrent of concern during 1960s over declining exploratory activity in the United States elicited little real attention outside of the industry itself. It was easy for others to treat these worries as merely the customary background noises that accompany an industry's efforts to encourage favorable treatment by Congress on taxation, incentives, or protection from foreign competition. However, the major disturbance caused by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil embargo in 1973 brought an immediate end to this lack of public attention. In 1975, a report by the Committee on Resources and the Environment (COMRATE) of the National Academy of Sciences, based on a review of contemporary estimates, stated that, of the original stock of crude oil and natural gas liquids (249 billion barrels), only 113 remained to be discovered. For natural gas 530 trillion cubic feet (of an original 1,227 trillion) remained. This marked the end ofmore » general optimism both in industry and government about the future U.S. oil and gas resource position. In this report, the data compiled by various sources on U.S. reserves are discussed and the reasons for the variations are evaluated. (MCW)« less