Projet DISCOBOLE : impact du changement climatique sur les aménagements côtiers

Answering to the call for proposal « Vulnerabilite des infrastructures vis-a-vis du changement climatique » A(equipment vulnerability to climate change), conducted by the French Ministry of Equipment, EDF R&D signed an agreement with CETMEF (Centre d'Etudes Techniques Maritimes et Fluviales), the Geomer team from the Universite de Bretagne Occidentale and the Laboratoire de Geographie Physique (CNRS) to submit a proposition regarding a work programme covering 4 years since 2004, named Discobole (Donnees pour le dImensionnement des Structures Cotieres et des Ouvrages de BOrd de mer a Longue Echeance, or in English Data for coastal structure and maritime work long-term design). The project aims at predicting the long-term (100 years) behaviour of some consequences of climate change on maritime and shore climatology, in order to provide a better design and long-term maintenance to waterworks (sea defence, breakwaters, etc.). Numerical simulation allowed us to estimate past trends relative to the spatial distribution of extreme storm surges and wind waves on the French shoreline (Atlantic/English Channel/North Sea). By building plausible meteorological data fields corresponding to the end of the XXI st century, we also investigated the effect of climate change on the future evolution of extreme storm surges. Although the methodology is subject to many uncertainties, it points out new quantitative elements regarding the possible future change of hydrodynamical phenomena which are rather difficult to estimate.