Системный подход к достижению общенациональной цели по увеличению ожидаемой продолжительности жизни до 78 лет к 2024 году

The paper defines conditions to achieve the national goal of increasing the lifetime in the Russian Federation to 78 years by 2024 as set in Presidential Decree No. 204 of May 7, 2018. The measures proposed in the Healthcare and Demography national projects are analyzed and additional measures to improve public health are proposed. It is shown that because of inadequate government expenditures on medicines for outpatients, the financial burden of their acquisition by people is four times as much compared to the government spending. It was revealed that to achieve life expectancy of 78 years by 2024, the public healthcare per capita expenditures should grow by 15% annually in constant prices, providing that the country’s GRP per capita increases by 1.7% in 2019, by 3% in 2020 and by 4% in the period of 2021–2024, while the consumption of strong alcoholic beverages decreases by 45% per capita. In the Healthcare national project the healthcare expenditure growth rates are defined to be below 10% at current prices. The paper concludes that the achievement of this goal requires additional government expenditures (including those in the framework of the Healthcare national project). The funds should also be directed to expanding the availability of medicines for outpatients, programs for reducing mortality from infectious diseases, and increasing salaries of lower medical personnel. For the implementation of the Demography national project, particular targets should be set to reduce the alcohol consumption by 45% until 2024, with twofold reduction of the proportion of smokers, along with additional measures to implement the anti-alcohol and anti-tobacco policy and promote healthy living among the population.