Multifractal analysis of wind farm power output

Wind generated power is subject to fluctuations due to the intermittent nature of wind which causes unpredictable energy provision. Electrical power is not easily stored so the generation of power ideally would match demand. The amount of energy provided by wind, (and solar power) is determined by natural events which makes matching supply and demand very difficult. Wind speed data has been used in the past to assist with the prediction of power generation, but it is not a satisfactory predictor. There have been numerous attempts to identify the characteristics of wind speed time series data and it has been found in previous studies that they exhibit long term dependence. Methods of analyzing wind speed and power output time series data have included traditional time series analyses such as ARMA and GARCH as well as the relatively new methods of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and more recently multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA). This study extends these latter methods to examine the variation of output that is inherent in wind generated power. (et al)